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How Many Goals Will the Fire Score in 2013?

With the Fire offense in good form this pre-season, how might that bode in terms of goals scored for the 2013 campaign? Read below for my take on things

Will this man be the leading goal scorer for the Fire in 2013?
Will this man be the leading goal scorer for the Fire in 2013?
Bob Levey

So as another season draws near I thought it would be fun to see if I could dig into my bag of tricks and try to predict how many goals the Men in Red will score this year.

I know that when trying to predict any kind of statistic in any sport it can be a crap shoot. Certain stats like who and how many goals will the leading scorer in MLS have, who and how many shutouts will the leading MLS goalkeeper have, etc. can be very hard to predict. So here is my shot at trying to predict how many goals the Chicago Fire will score during the 2013 season.

To start out, an explanation of the method that I used is needed when trying to come up with some pattern to make a guess. (remember this is just for fun and by no means can I predict how many goals the Chicago Fire will score.) First I went back and took a look at how many goals the Fire actually did score every season since 2007. I chose the 2007 season because that was the first season that Frank Klopas was in charge as technical director. Now, when projecting goals scored by the Fire before each season there were a few factors I looked at. First I took into account who left the Fire during each off season and how many goals they scored. Second I took into account whom the Fire brought in during the off season and how many goals they scored either during the previous season or with their previous team in the previous calendar year. Yes I do realize that comparing leagues like the Uruguayan Primera Division to MLS is not something that can be compared. I took that out of the equation and had an unbiased stats based look because I know you can't really expect much from a forward that only scored 19 goals in 7 years while playing in the Uruguay *ahem* Puppo *ahem*. I also did not account for players that were brought in after the regular season started. Since we have no idea who those players are that the Fire may bring in this July when the season starts in March, I therefore cannot add those goals to the predicted total. Here is what I came up with when taking all of those factors into account:

























As you can tell by the table the projected goals scored is never right on with the actual goals scored amount, except it did come close in 2012. Also, the actual goals scored increased from 2007 because of other factors like the increase of games during the season due to expansion teams. Another interesting thing is that the past 2 years the Fire have been able to score the same number of goals when playing the same number of games.

So based on the table that I have compiled and what has happened over the past couple seasons, I'm actually going to predict that the Fire will break the 50 goal mark this season. Here is why. Last season the Fire were projected to score 45 and actually scored 46. This season we are projected to score 44 but since the Fire seem to have the entire roster together through a full preseason, I think the chemistry that they were able to produce during the preseason will help them get past that mark. Again, I want to reiterate that this was just for fun and I hope you can take it that way also. I would love to see what you, the reader, would predict based on these numbers.