Who are the Fire? Part 1 of a 2-Part Story

I posted the most recent update on MLS Carryover Minutes the other day and I have to say I was very disappointed with the results. In August of 2011, I looked at the mess Frank Klopas was going to have to clean up from a slew of recent retirements, departing players, and everything that was Carlos de los Cobos. I felt sorry for him and everyone else involved. I felt so sorry, I titled the article 2011 Chicago Fire: Never had a chance... but don't blame Frank Klopas". My message was the deep numbers of roster turnover suggest at least a year or two was needed before the Chicago Fire could contend again.

I was ready to be patient. I was optimistic even as the players Klopas had helped to bring in weren't panning out. We did start to see some progress in the middle of the summer after de los Cobos was gone. Dominic Oduro became a legitimate goal threat. Dan Gargan appeared to finally solve the team's issue at right back. Sebastian Grazzini and Pavel Pardo really turned things around. Chicago lost to Seattle in the 2011 U.S. Open Cup Final and I was okay with that. Klopas had made a valiant effort with a scrappy team. The Fire were back I thought.

In 2012, the optimism kept rolling. We drafted Austin Berry. Cory Gibbs was healthy. Rafael Robayo, a beloved Colombian club captain, was joining the team. We got Arne Friedrich. We got Chris Rolfe (back!). The Fire were going places. The front office was really putting the pieces together. There were bumps along the road (the team left the U.S. Open Cup very early, Grazzini left under mysterious circumstances, Gibbs went back to being Gibbs, Robayo left for non-mysterious reasons, we wish Federico Puppo never arrived), but overall who could complain as the team went down the home stretch with an outside chance for the Supporters' Shield? Even when the team fizzled out into the play-in playoff match and fizzled out of that game at home, I still felt optimistic things were coming together for the 2013 season.

Well here we are over 2/3 of the way through the season and I feel like the Chicago Fire are back to 2010 and 2011 where Fire fans break out the remaining opposition schedules and calculators to figure out the math of making the playoffs. It doesn't look good. And building to something better? The Fire have a worse Carryover Minutes number this year than they did last year. How did this happen? What does the future look like for the Fire? Is this an unfortunate setback on the road to power or is this what we should expect in MLS? Why don't we do a little comparison?

My favorite game at Toyota Park was the 2009 Eastern Conference Semi-Final vs. New England. Cuauhtemoc Blanco scored the clinching aggregate goal in the 83rd minute and the sold-out crowd went absolutely ballistic. Ask any regular who was there and they will tell you it was the loudest they've ever heard Toyota Park.

My least favorite game was the 2009 Eastern Conference Final vs. Real Salt Lake. Chicago entered the game as heavy favorites only to lose in penalty kicks as I stood in Section 8 and watched it go down right in front of my own eyes. I didn't realize it at the time but Salt Lake City had put together what it needed to become a MLS juggernaut. They would win the MLS Cup that year and they would continue to be one of the best teams in the league ever since. Let's compare Chicago's MLS Carryover Minutes to Salt Lake's MLS Carryover Minutes season by season since 2009. Besides the 2013 Carryover Minutes chart, players that are bolded in the charts throughout this piece are currently with their respective team.

REAL SALT LAKE 2009-2013 AS OF AUGUST 29, 2013

2009 Returning Player	POS	MINS		2009 New Player	POS	MINS
Nat Borchers	D	2679		Ned Grabavoy	M	765
Chris Wingert	D	2432		Pablo Campos	F	400
Will Johnson	M	2305		Raphael Cox	M	208
Nick Rimando	GK	2285		Rachid El Khalifi	M-F	178
Kyle Beckerman	M	2218		Luis Miguel Escalada	F	126
Javier Morales	M	2076		Jean Alexandre	F	99
Jamison Olave	D	2039		Total New Minutes		1776
Clint Mathis	M	1926
Tony Beltran	D	1860
Robbie Findley	F	1751
Yura Movsisyan	F	1731
Robbie Russell	D	1552
Fabian Espindola	F	1511
Andy Williams	M	780
Chris Seitz	GK	360
David Horst	D	86
Kyle Reynish	GK	55
Tino Nunez	F	18
Ian Joy	D	7
Total Returning Minutes		27671
2009 Carryover Minutes %		0.94

2010 Returning Player	POS	MINS		2010 New Player	POS	MINS
Nat Borchers	D	2673		Alvaro Saborio	F	1988
Nick Rimando	GK	2430		Collen Warner	M	426
Jamison Olave	D	2413		Rauwshan McKenzie	D	224
Will Johnson	M	2184		Chris Schuler	D	90
Javier Morales	M	2163		Paulo Junior	F	65
Chris Wingert	D	1985		Total New Minutes		2793
Robbie Russell	D	1915
Andy Williams	M	1862
Kyle Beckerman	M	1830
Ned Grabavoy	M	1562
Fabian Espindola	F	1514
Tony Beltran	D	1493
Robbie Findley	F	1355
Jean Alexandre	F	494
Pablo Campos	F	434
Nelson Gonzalez	M	330
Kyle Reynish	GK	270
Total Returning Minutes		26907
2010 Carryover Minutes %		0.91

2011 Returning Player	POS	MINS		2011 New Player	POS	MINS
Nick Rimando	GK	2970		Arturo Alvarez	M	724
Nat Borchers	D	2547		Yordany Alvarez	M	419
Kyle Beckerman	M	2423		Artur Aghasyan	F	98
Jamison Olave	D	2128		Cody Arnoux	M	69
Fabian Espindola	F	2096		Blake Wagner	D-M	63
Will Johnson	M	2059		Chris Agorsor	F	10
Andy Williams	M	1970		Total New Minutes		1383
Alvaro Saborio	F	1928
Chris Wingert	D	1915
Ned Grabavoy	M	1899
Robbie Russell	D	1809
Tony Beltran	D	1731
Chris Schuler	D	1638
Luis Gil	M	1288
Collen Warner	M	1106
Javier Morales	M	785
Jean Alexandre	F	703
Paulo Junior	F	468
Rauwshan McKenzie	D	180
Nelson Gonzalez	M	174
Kyle Reynish	GK	90
Total Returning Minutes		31907
2011 Carryover Minutes %		0.96

2012 Player	POS	MINS		2012 New Player	POS	MINS
Tony Beltran	D	2857		Jonny Steele	M	1179
Nick Rimando	GK	2790		Kwame Watson-Siriboe	D	918
Chris Wingert	D	2603		Sebastian Velasquez	M	403
Kyle Beckerman	M	2592		Abdoulie Mansally	D	364
Alvaro Saborio	F	2390		Terakazu Tanaka	D	325
Nat Borchers	D	2340		Emiliano Bonfigli	F	288
Fabian Espindola	F	2293		Justin Braun	F	87
Javier Morales	M	2119		David Viana	M	27
Will Johnson	M	2087		Total New Minutes		3591
Ned Grabavoy	M	1946
Jamison Olave	D	1734
Luis Gil	M	1610
Chris Schuler	D	944
Paulo Junior	F	848
Yordany Alvarez	M	500
Kyle Reynish	GK	270
Total Returning Minutes		29923
2012 Carryover Minutes %		0.89

2013 Returning Player	POS	MINS		2013 New Player	POS	MINS
Ned Grabavoy	M	2130		Joao Plata	F	1336
Nat Borchers	D	1980		Lovel Palmer	D	940
Nick Rimando	GK	1890		Olmes Garcia	F	832
Javier Morales	M	1885		Carlos Salcedo	D	811
Tony Beltran	D	1789		Khari Stephenson	M	718
Kyle Beckerman	M	1741		Devon Sandoval	F	704
Luis Gil	M	1552		Jeff Attinella	GK	309
Chris Wingert	D	1285		Aaron Maund	D	270
Chris Schuler	D	1080		Josh Saunders	GK	231
Robbie Findley	F	1041		Brandon McDonald	D	180
Alvaro Saborio	F	991		Cole Grossman	M	88
Sebastian Velasquez	M	784		John Stertzer	M	33
Yordany Alvarez	M	747		Rich Balchan	D	0
Abdoulie Mansally	D	669		Total New Minutes		6452
Kwame Watson-Siriboe	D	630
David Viana	M	0
Eduardo Fernandez	GK	0
Enzo Martinez	M	0
Total Returning Minutes		20194
2013 Carryover Minutes %		76%

CHICAGO FIRE 2009-2013 AS OF AUGUST 29, 2013

2009 Returning Player	POS	MINS		2009 New Player	POS	MINS
Jon Busch	GK	2700		Tim Ward	D	1685
Marco Pappa	M	2314		Baggio Husidic	M	449
Logan Pause	M	2287		Stefan Dimitrov	F	124
Patrick Nyarko	M	1983		Total New Minutes		2258
Brian McBride	F	1963
Chris Rolfe	F	1854
Wilman Conde	D	1614
John Thorrington	M	1574
C.J. Brown	D	1454
Cuauhtemoc Blanco	F	1452
Brandon Prideaux	D	1414
Bakary Soumare	D	1364
Justin Mapp	M	1013
Gonzalo Segares	D	965
Mike Banner	D	942
Dasan Robinson	D	908
Peter Lowry	M	659
Daniel Woolard	D	409
Austin Washington	D	360
Calen Carr	F	90
Total Returning Minutes		27319
2009 Carryover Minutes %		0.92

2010 Returning Player	POS	MINS		2010 New Player	POS	MINS
C.J. Brown	D	2340		Krzysztof Krol	D	1565
Logan Pause	M	2258		Freddie Ljungberg	M-F	1200
Patrick Nyarko	M	2068		Sean Johnson	GK	1170
Wilman Conde	D	2019		Steven Kinney	D	963
Marco Pappa	M	1961		Collins John	F	901
Brian McBride	F	1604		Bratislav Ristic	D	692
Andrew Dykstra	GK	1530		Kwame Watson-Siriboe	D	681
Baggio Husidic	M	1498		Deris Umanzor	D	502
Dasan Robinson	D	1369		Nery Castillo	F	487
Mike Banner	D-M	1019		Corben Bone	M	114
Peter Lowry	M	1004		Julio Martinez	M	108
Justin Mapp	M	552		Total New Minutes		8383
Calen Carr	F	538
Tim Ward	D	535
Gonzalo Segares	D	439
John Thorrington	M	397
Stefan Dimitrov	F	67
Total Returning Minutes		21198
2010 Carryover Minutes %		0.72

2011 Returning Player	POS	MINS		2011 New Player	POS	MINS
Gonzalo Segares	D	2950		Dominic Oduro	F	2604
Sean Johnson	GK	2520		Jalil Anibaba	D	2508
Logan Pause	M	2514		Cory Gibbs	D	2203
Marco Pappa	M	2324		Diego Chaves	F	1699
Patrick Nyarko	M	2266		Yamith Cuesta	D	1681
Baggio Husidic	M	794		Daniel Paladini	M	1491
Orr Barouch	F	624		Pavel Pardo	M	1047
Corben Bone	M	534		Josip Mikulic	D	1038
Bratislav Ristic	D-M	413		Gaston Puerari	F	808
Dasan Robinson	D	248		Dan Gargan	D	785
Total Returning Minutes		15187		Sebastian Grazzini	M	780
				Cristian Nazarit	F	624
				Jon Conway	GK	540
				Michael Videira	D-M	493
				Davis Paul	M	45
				Marko Maric	M	19
				Gabriel Ferrari	F	17
				Total New Minutes		18382
2011 Carryover Minutes %		0.45

2012 Returning Player	POS	MINS		2012 New Player	POS	MINS
Jalil Anibaba	D	2868		Austin Berry	D	2520
Sean Johnson	GK	2766		Arne Friedrich	D	1832
Patrick Nyarko	M-F	2756		Chris Rolfe	F	1760
Gonzalo Segares	D	2682		Sherjill MacDonald	F	1033
Logan Pause	M	2424		Alvaro Fernandez	M	943
Pavel Pardo	M	2386		Alex	M	705
Dominic Oduro	F	1823		Rafael Robayo	M	439
Dan Gargan	D	1754		Paolo Tornaghi	GK	270
Marco Pappa	M	1615		Orr Barouch	F	224
Sebastian Grazzini	M	1103		Federico Puppo	F	216
Daniel Paladini	M	691		Wells Thompson	D-M	65
Cory Gibbs	D	270		Hunter Jumper	D	48
Michael Videira	D-M	40		Guillermo Franco	F	43
Corben Bone	M	26		Total New Minutes		10098
Total Returning Minutes		23204
2012 Carryover Minutes %		0.70

2013 Returning Player	POS	MINS		2013 New Player	POS	MINS
Austin Berry	D	2160		Jeff Larentowicz	M	1997
Jalil Anibaba	D	2160		Joel Lindpere	M	1350
Gonzalo Segares	D	1980		Dilly Duka	M	1216
Chris Rolfe	F-M	1719		Bakary Soumare	D	1170
Sean Johnson	GK	1620		Mike Magee	M	1054
Patrick Nyarko	M	1554		Maicon Santos	F	379
Alex	M	1023		Quincy Amarikwa	F	207
Daniel Paladini	M	785		Arevalo Rios	M	180
Logan Pause	M	759		Juan Luis Anangono	F	161
Sherjill MacDonald	F	579		Shaun Francis	D	90
Paolo Tornaghi	GK	540		Yazid Atouba Emane	M	55
Wells Thompson	D	520		Total New Minutes		7859
Steven Kinney	D	180
Hunter Jumper	D	180
Michael Videira	M	84
Corben Bone	M	3
Total Returning Minutes		15846
2013 Carryover Minutes %		0.67

To get away from the year-by-year comparison and into a big picture perspective, I've added all of the minutes played by every player that put on a Chicago Fire or Real Salt Lake jersey between 2009-2013.

CHICAGO FIRE & REAL SALT LAKE PLAYERS BETWEEN 2009-AUGUST 29, 2013

Chicago Fire Player	MINS	Acquired Method		Real Salt Lake Player	MINS	Acquired Method
Patrick Nyarko	10290	SuperDraft		Nick Rimando	12275	Trade
Logan Pause	10242	SuperDraft		Nat Borchers	12219	Allocation Lottery
Gonzalo Segares	8656	SuperDraft		Kyle Beckerman	10804	Trade
Marco Pappa	8214	International		Chris Wingert	10220	Trade
Sean Johnson	8076	SuperDraft		Tony Beltran	9730	SuperDraft
Jalil Anibaba	7536	SuperDraft		Javier Morales	9028	International
Chris Rolfe	5333	SuperDraft		Will Johnson	8635	Trade
Dominic Oduro	4427	SuperDraft		Jamison Olave	8314	International
Austin Berry	4230	SuperDraft		Ned Grabavoy	8302	Waivers
C.J. Brown	3794	SuperDraft		Fabian Espindola	7414	International
Wilman Conde	3633	International		Alvaro Saborio	7297	International
Brian McBride	3567	Rights Trade		Robbie Russell	5959	International
Pavel Pardo	3343	International		Andy Williams	4612	Expansion Draft
Daniel Paladini	2967	Lower League		Luis Gil	4450	Trade
Baggio Husidic	2741	SuperDraft		Robbie Findley	4147	Trade
Jon Busch	2700	Waived		Chris Schuler	3752	SuperDraft
Dan Gargan	2539	Trade		Clint Mathis	1926	Rights Trade
Bakary Soumare	2534	SuperDraft		Yura Movsisyan	1731	Trade
Dasan Robinson	2525	SuperDraft		Yordany Alvarez	1666	Lower League
Cory Gibbs	2473	Re-Entry Draft		Kwame Watson-Siriboe	1548	Trade
Tim Ward	2220	Waived		Collen Warner	1532	SuperDraft
Jeff Larentowicz	1997	Trade		Paulo Junior	1381	Lower League
John Thorrington	1971	International		Joao Plata	1336	Trade
Mike Banner	1961	SuperDraft		Jean Alexandre	1296	SuperDraft
Sebastian Grazzini	1883	International		Sebastian Velasquez	1187	SuperDraft
Arne Friedrich	1832	International		Jonny Steele	1179	Unsigned Trialist
Diego Chaves	1699	International		Abdoulie Mansally	1033	Unsigned Trialist
Yamith Cuesta	1681	Trade		Lovel Palmer	940	Re-Entry Draft
Alex	1663	International		Pablo Campos	834	Trade
Peter Lowry	1663	SuperDraft		Olmes Garcia	832	International
Sherjill MacDonald	1612	International		Carlos Salcedo	811	Homegrown
Justin Mapp	1565	Trade		Arturo Alvarez	724	Trade
Krzysztof Krol	1565	International		Devon Sandoval	704	SuperDraft
Andrew Dykstra	1530	Unsigned Trialist		Kyle Reynish	685	SuperDraft
Cuauhtemoc Blanco	1452	International		Khari Stephenson	656	Unsigned Trialist
Brandon Prideaux	1414	Waived		Nelson Gonzalez	504	International
Joel Lindpere	1350	Trade		Rauwshan McKenzie	404	Waivers
Dilly Duka	1216	Trade		Chris Seitz	360	SuperDraft
Freddie Ljungberg	1200	Trade		Terakazu Tanaka	325	International
Steven Kinney	1143	SuperDraft		Jeff Attinella	309	SuperDraft
Bratislav Ristic	1105	International		Emiliano Bonfigli	288	SuperDraft
Mike Magee	1054	Rights Trade		Aaron Maund	270	SuperDraft
Josip Mikulic	1038	International		Josh Saunders	231	Unsigned Trialist
Alvaro Fernandez	943	Trade		Raphael Cox	208	SuperDraft
Collins John	901	International		Brandon McDonald	180	Trade
Orr Barouch	848	International		Rachid El Khalifi	178	International
Paolo Tornaghi	810	International		Luis Miguel Escalada	126	International
Gaston Puerari	808	International		Artur Aghasyan	98	Lower League
Kwame Watson-Siriboe	681	SuperDraft		Justin Braun	87	Trade
Corben Bone	677	SuperDraft		David Horst	86	SuperDraft
Calen Carr	628	SuperDraft		Cole Grossman	77	Waivers
Cristian Nazarit	624	International		Cody Arnoux	69	Allocation Lottery
Michael Videira	617	Lower League		Blake Wagner	63	Waivers
Wells Thompson	585	Trade		John Stertzer	33	SuperDraft
Jon Conway	540	Trade		David Viana	27	International
Deris Umanzor	502	International		Tino Nunez	18	SuperDraft
Nery Castillo	487	International		Chris Agorsor	10	Waivers
Rafael Robayo	439	International		Ian Joy	7	International
Daniel Woolard	409	SuperDraft
Maicon Santos	379	Re-Entry Draft
Hunter Jumper	228	SuperDraft
Federico Puppo	216	International
Quincy Amarikwa	207	Trade
Stefan Dimitrov	191	Unsigned Trialist
Arevalo Rios	180	International
Juan Luis Anangono	161	International
Julio Martinez	108	International
Shaun Francis	90	International
Yazmid Atouba	55	SuperDraft
Davis Paul	45	SuperDraft
Guillermo Franco	43	International
Marko Maric	19	International
Gabriel Ferrari	17	Unsigned Trialist

A couple of things strike out at me. Real Salt Lake has done a very good job of keeping the same core of players. You even have 1-11 on somewhat of their own level (Rimando through Saborio), players 12-16 (Russell through Schuler) are on a second level, and then after that you slowly go down a list of players that contributed a great deal in one season or were minor contributors for a couple of seasons. Real Salt Lake built their team through a hodgepodge of trades, draft picks, international signings, a little luck with some lotteries, even picking up players off waivers.

The Chicago Fire have built their backbone almost entirely from products of the SuperDraft. They have had mixed success in the other areas of acquisition with no long-term contributors. Their player list has no pattern other than dropping lower and lower in minutes played.

I would be remiss if I didn't point out the fact that the Fire drafted Kwame Watson-Siriboe 26^th overall in the 2010 SuperDraft. Watson-Siriboe played 681 minutes for the Fire in 2010 before being permanently benched. C.J. Brown pushed for Real Salt Lake to acquire Watson-Siriboe and the Fire traded the young American player for a late pick in the 2014 MLS SuperDraft. Watson-Siriboe was recently injured but he has put in more minutes for RSL in less time than he was with Chicago.

Is a move like this part of a bad pattern for Chicago and a good pattern for Real Salt Lake? We'll break down the teams' moves by acquisition method in the second part of this story.