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September 3 Update: Home/Away Splits & Projecting 2013 Playoffs

A weekend of MLS games has changed the numbers for teams making the MLS Playoffs

Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Spor

Since the last article on Home/Away Splits, the following games have taken place:

Friday, August 30, 2013

New England Revolution 1 @ Toronto FC 1

Portland Timbers 2 @ Real Salt Lake 4

Saturday, August 31, 2013

Seattle Sounders 1 @ Columbus Crew 0

Montreal Impact 0 @ Philadelphia Union 0

D.C. United 1 @ New York Red Bulls 2

Colorado Rapids 1 @ Sporting KC 2

San Jose Earthquakes 0 @ LA Galaxy 3

Sunday, September 1, 2013

Houston Dynamo 1 @ Chicago Fire 1

Chivas USA 2 @ Vancouver Whitecaps 2

Updated Projections

The projections now look like this:

Team Current PTS New Prj PTS Last Week Change
1 Real Salt Lake 48 58.29 57.16 1.13
2 LA Galaxy 43 58.08 57.18 0.90
3 Seattle Sounders 40 58.01 55.51 2.50
4 Montreal Impact 42 56.23 56.23 0.00
5 New York Red Bulls 42 53.52 52.51 1.01
6 Sporting KC 42 52.68 51.00 1.68
7 Portland Timbers 39 52.42 53.72 -1.30
8 Houston Dynamo 37 51.00 51.00 0.00
9 Philadelphia Union 39 48.85 49.69 -0.84
10 Colorado Rapids 39 48.66 50.19 -1.53
11 FC Dallas 37 48.38 48.38 0.00
12 New England Revolution 37 48.38 48.71 -0.33
13 Vancouver Whitecaps 37 46.75 48.06 -1.31
14 Chicago Fire 35 45.48 46.60 -1.12
15 San Jose Earthquakes 34 43.90 44.46 -0.56
16 Columbus Crew 29 37.92 39.88 -1.96
17 Toronto FC 22 28.77 28.77 0.00
18 Chivas USA 22 28.77 28.12 0.65
19 D.C. United 14 18.31 18.63 -0.32

Montreal, Kansas City, New York, and Houston all did the bare minimum or more this weekend. Philadelphia, New England, and Chicago all dropped in their projected points total. Chicago dropped the most given their strong home record and only getting a draw against Houston on Sunday.

If there is any good news to be had, it's that Chicago can dramatically improve their standing with a win in Seattle this weekend. That would raise their projection up to 48.57. New England faces Montreal at home and Philadelphia travels to San Jose. If Chicago wins this weekend, New England would have win this weekend to keep pace. A tie or a loss would drop their total below 48.57. Philadelphia will have to win as well to stay ahead. A loss would drop them below. A draw would put the Union dead even with Chicago at 48.57. If Houston lost their mid-week game at Columbus and their home game over the weekend against New York, they too would fall behind Chicago if the Fire won at Seattle on Saturday.

The odds of any of this happening are pretty low given Chicago's away performance but we can hope, right?